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《可能是英国伟大的在世统计学家》来自英国的“统计国宝”，一本聪明的、以数据为基础的指南，告诉我们如何面对风险和不确定性我们生活在一个不确定性不可避免的世界。我们应该如何处理我们不知道的事情？机会、运气和巧合在我们的生活中扮演什么角色？David Spiegelhalter在他的职业生涯中一直在分析数据，以了解风险并评估未来可能发生的事情的可能性。在《不确定性的艺术》一书中，他为读者提供了一扇窗口，让他们了解我们如何能做得更好。 在引人入胜、晶莹剔透的散文中，他向我们介绍了概率论的原理，展示了概率论如何帮助我们更有分析性地思考从医疗建议到流行病和气候变化预测等一切问题，并探讨了我们如何在面对不断变化的经验时更新我们对未来的信念。在书中，他解释了为什么大约40%的足球比赛结果取决于运气而不是天赋，国家风险登记册如何评估英国的短期风险，以及为什么我们可以如此自信，两副正确洗牌的扑克牌从来没有按照完全相同的顺序排列过。这本书借鉴了大量引人入胜的现实世界的例子，是一本在面对不确定性的同时谦卑地承认我们不知道的重要指南。 ‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know